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FrameworksThe Investment Underwriting Framework

The Investment Underwriting Framework

A framework for testing what is true, what creates return, what can fail, and whether the price justifies the risk.

Overview

The Investment Underwriting Framework helps you see what is shaping the outcome beneath the surface.

A framework for testing what is true, what creates return, what can fail, and whether the price justifies the risk.

The Investment Underwriting Framework helps you see what is shaping the outcome beneath the surface.

The elements

  1. 1

    The commitment

    What is actually being funded or bought, and what capital, time, and attention it consumes.

  2. 2

    The return engine

    The economics, incentives, and conditions that could create a financial or strategic return.

  3. 3

    The price and alternatives

    What is being paid relative to value, risk, time, and other possible uses of the same capital.

  4. 4

    The downside

    What can impair the thesis, trap capital, or make the decision difficult to reverse.

  5. 5

    The disconfirming evidence

    What result, fact, or changed condition would show that the thesis is wrong.

How to use it

  1. 1

    Write the capital-allocation thesis in plain language before relying on reputation, access, or momentum.

  2. 2

    Separate the quality of the asset or initiative from its price, timing, and alternative uses of the same capital.

  3. 3

    Define what you would need to see to increase, reduce, stop, or exit the commitment before committing capital.

Common pitfalls

  • Treating access as evidence of value.
  • Confusing a good company, asset, or initiative with a good investment at any price.
  • Ignoring opportunity cost, reversibility, downside, and evidence that could disprove the thesis.

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